Jack Farrell

Alberta’s government said Friday it has picked the University of Calgary to study potential costs of the province leaving Canada.

It has also formed what it calls an expert advisory panel to review the university’s report and provide a separate assessment.

The panel is led by economist Jack Mintz, a go-to expert for Alberta governments who has served on several advisory groups and panels in recent decades.

It also features business leaders and former politicians Janice MacKinnon, a Saskatchewan NDP finance minister, and Ted Morton, an Alberta Progressive Conservative finance minister.

The United Conservative Party government said in a news release that the panel’s involvement “will allow for further and potentially differing views to be shared, ensuring Albertans are equipped with all the facts.”

In 2001, Morton was a signatory to the infamous firewall letter sent by Stephen Harper, before he became prime minister, to then-Alberta premier Ralph Klein. It called on Klein to take a number of steps to give Alberta more independence from Ottawa.

The province said the University of Calgary’s School of Public Policy would “retain full and independent control over the final report.”

The school’s director, Martha Hall Findlay, said in the release that the school is pleased to do the analysis and she appreciates the independence.

Premier Danielle Smith and Finance Minister Jason Nixon have hinted at the report in recent weeks.

They said Albertans deserve to be informed ahead of the province’s Oct. 19 referendum, which will see Albertans vote on remaining in Canada or on starting the process to have a second, binding vote on separation.

Smith has said she doesn’t think many of those in the separatist movement understand what separation would entail. 

She estimated earlier this month that quitting Confederation could cost the province $400 billion — including Alberta’s share of the national debt, NATO commitments, forming armed forces and other startup costs — plus an annual price tag of up to $50 billion.

Separatist leaders have pushed back on Smith’s math, claiming that forming a new country would come with no more than $5.7 billion in startup costs and an independent Alberta would post surpluses once tax revenue stops going to Ottawa.

The province said the university’s report is to look at transition costs, economic impacts, risks and possible savings.

“Alberta’s government is committed to ensuring Albertans have access to objective, evidence-based analysis so they can be confident in their decision,” it said in the release.

Nixon’s press secretary, Juliana Rodriguez, said the government has budgeted up to $1.5 million for the report and the panel but didn’t provide a breakdown.

“The cost reflects the importance of this work and the potential outcomes” and ensures the work is done “properly, independently and credibly,” Rodriguez said.

Opposition NDP Leader Naheed Nenshi called it an unnecessary undertaking.

“We already know the cost of separation is enormous,” Nenshi said in a statement Friday.

“We don’t need a recycled panel of Danielle Smith’s inner circle to tell us that.”

The government said the report and the panel’s assessment would be shared by the end of summer, so Albertans have time to consider them before the referendum.

Nenshi has said Smith’s decision to put Alberta’s future in Canada to a vote at all is irresponsible. This week he wrote to the director of the Canadian Security and Intelligence Service asking for public updates on potential foreign interference attempts between now and October.

He also asked CSIS to assess whether the vote could take place in a safe manner, citing a massive data breach earlier this year.

A separatist group obtained Alberta’s official voter list with the names and addresses of nearly three million people. Three separate investigations into the leak are underway, including by the RCMP and Elections Alberta.

CSIS did not immediately respond to questions Friday.

Smith’s office said Nenshi is fearmongering and repeated that the premier has clearance to receive briefings from CSIS on national security issues. Smith’s press secretary, Sam Blackett, said she has started receiving briefings but didn’t provide details.

Blackett also said Public Safety Minister Mike Ellis and Technology Minister Nate Glubish have been tasked with monitoring “influence campaigns” and would share any concerns to authorities.

Smith has said she’ll be voting for Alberta to remain in Canada. She has cited two competing petitions on either side of the separation debate as the reason she’s putting the question to a vote.

The petition pushing the separatist cause was thrown out by a judge last month, and Elections Alberta has yet to verify the nearly 302,000 signatures organizers have said are on it.

Smith’s government filed an appeal this week of the judge’s decision. The court document says the province plans to argue that the judge made 14 mistakes in her ruling, including her determination that the province neglected its duty to consult First Nations.

The cost of the referendum, which involves nine other government-sponsored questions around immigration and constitutional reform, has not been calculated. 

Elections Alberta has said it needs to hire at least 60,000 workers to facilitate the vote and hand count the ballots as required under provincial law.

The 2023 general election in Alberta, which required about 13,000 election officials, cost $37 million.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published June 12, 2026.

This is a corrected story. A previous version said NDP Leader Naheed Nenshi wrote to the director of the Canadian Security and Intelligence Service on Friday.

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