A citizen initiative petition proposing a referendum on Alberta becoming an independent country has been declared successful after Elections Alberta verified enough signatures to satisfy the requirements of the Citizen Initiative Act.

The agency announced Friday that statistical verification estimated 222,597 valid signatures from an initial submission of 286,593 signatures, surpassing the required minimum of 177,732.

Despite the successful verification, the process cannot move forward until the courts decide an appeal stemming from an earlier ruling that quashed the petition.

The petition, titled A Referendum Relating to Alberta Independence, asks whether Alberta “should cease to be a part of Canada to become an independent state.” It was organized by proponent Mitch Sylvestre.

Chief electoral officer Gordon McClure determined the petition met the requirements of Section 6 of the Citizen Initiative Act after Elections Alberta completed its verification and determination process. That review was carried out following a June 29 direction from the Alberta Court of Appeal.

How the numbers were reached

According to Elections Alberta, petition organizers initially submitted 286,593 signatures. After the validation process, 279,337 were found to be valid.

A statistical verification process using a 95 per cent confidence level estimated 222,597 signatures belonged to eligible electors, representing about 7.5 per cent of the province’s registered voters.

Under the Citizen Initiative Act in effect on May 1, constitutional initiative petitions require signatures from at least 10 per cent of the 1,777,315 ballots cast in the 2023 provincial election. That amounted to a threshold of 177,732 signatures.

The agency said the most common reasons for rejecting signatures during the initial review were incomplete addresses and electors failing to complete a required declaration of eligibility.

Some canvassers signed witness declarations before electors had signed the petition. Others listed a mailing address instead of a physical residential address, as the law requires.

Elections Alberta also rejected 292 duplicate signatures. Signing a petition more than once breaches the act, the agency said.

During the verification phase, signatures were most often rejected when information provided by an elector did not match the signature sheet, or when an elector was unable or unwilling to verify their information.

For the statistical sample, Elections Alberta contacted 952 individuals by phone to complete 384 verifications, the minimum sample size required.

The agency said a caller ID system identified calls as coming from Elections Alberta. Electors who did not answer, or did not return a call, voice mail or email, were not counted as having failed verification.

Fraud allegation reviewed

Elections Alberta said it was aware of a social media post alleging that an individual’s signature had been used fraudulently. The agency reviewed the claim against its verification script, process and call records. It said the description in the post did not match its process and records did not support the allegation.

The account holder who made the post did not respond to requests for further information.

Separately, Elections Alberta said it screened the petition for names seeded from the Republican Party of Alberta’s list of electors, a step ordered by the chief electoral officer on May 1 after a data breach in April.

Any seeded name found on a petition would trigger additional scrutiny. The agency confirmed none of the seeded names appeared among the submitted signatures.

A petition tied up in court

The petition’s path has not been straightforward. The application was approved and a notice of initiative petition was issued Jan. 2.

The signature-gathering period ran until May 2 and Sylvestre delivered the signed petition to McClure on May 4, along with an affidavit confirming all copies of the signature sheets had been destroyed, as the law requires.

Before verification could begin, the petition was challenged in court by a group of First Nations, who argued the process was unconstitutional. A judge agreed to pause certification of the petition on April 10, ruling that First Nations had not been properly consulted.

Both Sylvestre and the Alberta government appealed that decision.

A later ruling on May 13 from the Court of King’s Bench went further, quashing the chief electoral officer’s original decision to approve the petition. The signature sheets were sealed, locked in cabinets and kept under 24-hour security while the legal fight continued.

Sylvestre appealed the quashing and on June 29, a Court of Appeal justice granted a partial stay, ordering Elections Alberta to carry out the verification process and report the results publicly. 

The stay took effect July 6. It did not require McClure to forward the proposal to the responsible minister, a step normally required once a petition succeeds.

Verification was carried out between July 6 and 23. With that work now complete, Elections Alberta says any further steps in the process remain on hold, pending the outcome of that appeal.

What comes next

Because the underlying legal question is unresolved, Friday’s announcement does not guarantee a referendum will take place. Elections Alberta said next steps will depend on the Court of Appeal’s ruling and any further direction from the courts.

If the process eventually proceeds, the province would move toward a public vote on the question proposed by Sylvestre’s petition: whether Alberta should leave Canada and become an independent state.

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